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New report details capital investment and operating costs of a Green Ethylene Plant located in the USA
Ford topped the list of vehicle exporters from India in the first half of 2016, overtaking Hyundai on the back of the continued popularity of its EcoSport compact sport utility vehicle in key markets. IHS Automotive Perspective
Passenger vehicle exports from India surged 14.1% year on year (y/y) during the first six months of 2016, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Automakers exported a total of 320,886 vehicles in the first half of the year, up from 281,213 units in the same period of 2015. Overseas vehicle shipments registered y/y growth in each month of the period after a decline in January. In June, passenger vehicle exports jumped 34.0% y/y to 53,609 units. In terms of automakers, Ford topped the list with overseas shipments of 41,535 units during the period. The automaker registered a massive gain of 81.4% y/y in its first-half volumes. The automaker's volumes were boosted by the continued popularity of its EcoSport compact sport utility vehicle (SUV) in key markets. During the six-month period, Ford emerged as India's biggest exporter, overtaking Hyundai, which recorded a decline of 10.6% y/y in export volumes to 41,385 units. Nissan claimed third position by exporting 39,333 units in the period, marking growth of 8.5% y/y. The Japanese automaker overtook Maruti Suzuki, which took fourth position with shipments of 33,220 units. Maruti is traditionally the second largest vehicle exporter from India after Hyundai but it saw a decline of 19.7% y/y in the first half. Another automaker of note is Volkswagen (VW), which expanded its overseas shipments by 66.7% y/y to 28,380 units. During the period, General Motors (GM) joined the top exporters with shipments of 20,658 units, a strong increase that left it in sixth position. Outlook and implications The export figures for individual automakers are in line with the trends evident in the Indian market. The growth in export volumes is dominated by automakers that are underperforming in the domestic market. This group includes Nissan, VW, and GM, while Ford is an exception as its passenger vehicle sales in the Indian market jumped 29.6% y/y to 41,868 units in the first half. In contrast, Nissan's sales in the Indian market declined by 4.8% y/y to 22,642 units, despite launching a new vehicle under the Datsun budget brand. Similarly, VW is going through a rough patch in the Indian market, as indicated by its first-half sales volumes of just 20,750 units, down 13.3% y/y. With first-half sales of just 14,690 vehicles (down 322.6% y/y), GM did not feature in the top-10 OEMs in India. Given their gross underperformance in the Indian market, these automakers are now using their manufacturing facilities in the country to produce vehicles for export markets. GM is the latest to join this trend, as the sharp surge in its export volumes indicates. On the other hand, Hyundai India and Maruti Suzuki are among the OEMs that either maintained or increased their share of the domestic market during the first half. Hyundai is known to be facing capacity constraints in producing enough units of the popular Creta sport utility vehicle (SUV), and as a result has reduced the number of vehicles destined for export markets. There has been a similar approach by Maruti Suzuki, which is facing capacity constraints amid the growing popularity of its Baleno hatchback and Vitara Brezza compact SUV. Although Maruti is currently producing the Baleno for export markets at its Manesar plant, a meaningful increase in export volumes can only take place in 2017 when its parent company Suzuki starts production at the Gujarat plant. Maruti will sell the vehicles produced at this plant in the domestic and overseas markets. About this article The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial. New report details capital investment and operating costs of a PEF Plant located in the USA
A strong performance in June pushed year-to-date (YTD) sales growth in the Mexican vehicle market to 18.4% year on year (y/y), while production was up 4.1% y/y during the month. IHS Automotive Perspective
Mexico's light-vehicle sales continued to surge at a double-digit percentage rate in June, posting strong growth of 25.9% year on year (y/y), building on the strong gains of 19.2% in May and 24.9% in April. According to latest data from the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (Asociación Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz: AMIA), automakers sold a total of 134,536 light vehicles in the month. Over the first six months of 2016, sales increased by 18.4% y/y to 721,856 units. The market had grown by 19.1% in 2015, reaching 1.35 million units, split between 892,194 passenger cars, up 19.7%, and 459,454 light commercial vehicles (LCVs), up 17.8%. Sales growth in Mexico in 2015 bucked the trend in other global regions, in that passenger car demand increased at a faster pace than LCV demand. IHS Automotive forecasts sales growth of 9.4% in 2016, split 64.5% versus 35.5% in favour of passenger cars. Nissan (including Infiniti) maintained its position as the best-selling group in Mexico during June with sales of 33,484 Nissan and 190 Infiniti units, an 18.6% y/y gain for Nissan and a 40.7% y/y increase for Infiniti. General Motors (GM), under the Chevrolet badge, retained its position as the second largest seller in June with 29,153 units sold, a gain of 35.4% y/y; GM also remains ahead of Volkswagen (VW) in the year to date (YTD). VW (including Audi, SEAT, and Porsche) sold 20,651 units in June, an increase of 21.4% y/y. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) surpassed Toyota to take fourth place with 8,279 units sold, although this was down 0.3% y/y. Despite a 34.3% y/y surge in its sales, Toyota was relegated to fifth place with monthly volumes of 7,824 units. This was enough to keep the Japanese automaker ahead of Ford, which sold 7,779 units in June, up 10.5% y/y. With sales of 6,769 units (up 27.9% y/y), Honda occupied seventh position in June. Thanks to the strong sales performance, Mexico's vehicle output grew 4.1% y/y in June to 319,122 units, from 306,694 units in June 2015. This was better than the decline of 3.1% y/y witnessed in May, although YTD production is still down 3.1% y/y at 1.67 million units. The recovery in June was led by Nissan, which posted a 6.2% y/y surge in output to 78,125 units. GM (60,239 units) and FCA (46,372 units) also posted gains, albeit smaller, at 1.3% and 5.2%, respectively. These gains were partially offset by 10.7% and 19.7% y/y declines registered by VW (40,951 units) and Ford (35,687 units), respectively. Mexican light-vehicle exports also changed track and achieved growth of 1.8% y/y to 247,005 units during June. Nevertheless, this slim gain was not enough to offset the declining trend seen earlier this year, and thus YTD exports are still down 5.6% y/y at 1.32 million units. Brazil's economic woes continue to drag down total export numbers, despite strong demand from the United States; over the first six months of 2016, Mexico exported 25,725 fewer units to Brazil than in the same period of 2015. In the same timeframe, exports to Colombia also shrank by 10,433 units. Nissan â the traditional leader in vehicle exports from Mexico â again led the way in June, although its volumes were down 2.1% y/y to 45,157 units. Nevertheless, GM and Ford posted steeper declines of 7.3% and 12.5% y/y, respectively. Exports for FCA were up 5% y/y during the month, but VW reported a 15.9% y/y contraction. Outlook and implications Solid domestic sales in June further bolstered growth, and YTD volumes are now up a healthy 18.4% y/y. This is remarkable as the gains come on the elevated levels of 2015, when light-vehicle sales expanded by 19.1%. IHS Automotive forecasts that conditions will continue to improve. Although a moderate pace of sales growth is expected to ultimately become the trend, IHS has adjusted its forecast upwards; we project growth of 6.5% in 2017 and 4.7% in 2018, followed by more modest growth rates in 2019 throughout the forecast period. The AMIA notes that Banco de Mexico, the Mexican central bank, indicated in June an expectation of economic growth of 2.36% for 2016 and 2.71% for 2017, compared with its May projections of 2.44% in 2016 and 2.84% in 2017. Inflation is now expected at 3.1% in 2016 and 3.39% in 2017, revised from earlier forecasts of 3.11% in 2016 and 3.35% in 2017. According to the AMIA, the economy continues to face the same possible headwinds: weakness of the external market and the global economy, and international financial instability. As Mexico's fortunes tend to mirror those of its neighbour, the US, the current stuttering economic indicators north of the border will need to be watched closely. The AMIA also reported in April that the fifth component of the consumer confidence index, which measures the likelihood of purchases of durable goods, increased by 1.6% compared with a year earlier, to 84.0 points; this was still 21.6% below the level in April 2007, prior to the recession. A supplemental index measuring the likelihood of car purchases increased to 66.1 points, 4.4% higher than in April 2015. The AMIA has reported that used-car imports remain low, which is a factor in our sales forecast. The slowdown of imported used cars in 2014 and 2015 helped provide some breathing space for new cars. In 2015, imports of used cars fell by 60.6%, the AMIA reported, noting that this was the lowest volume since 2005. Over the first quarter of 2016, however, used-car imports gained by 17.1% y/y to 61,587 units. This figure, however, remained notably lower than the 185,075 used cars imported in the first quarter of 2014 and the 207,645 units imported in 2013. This change is helping to dampen the negative pressures on the domestic market. The association continues to note that 7.75 million used vehicles in the country will have implications for the environment, road safety, and the renewal of vehicles. The AMIA remains concerned that the influx of used vehicles from the US affects the renewal of the vehicle parc, and is encouraging the Mexican government to keep the current practices in place. Investments by automakers and component suppliers continue, with Ford having announced a new USD1.6-billion small-car plant in early April. BMW broke ground on its new Mexican plant in June, while Honda announced plans in June to increase output of the HR-V in Mexico. Production, although delayed, began in May at Kia's plant, and Audi is on schedule for a September 2016 start to production at its Mexican facility. GM has also started supplemental production of the Cruze in Mexico. Supplier announcements in June came from Inteva and Magneti Marelli. After increasing 9.9% to 3.21 million units in 2014, Mexican light-vehicle production growth was more moderate in 2015, reaching 3.39 million units, up 5.7%. However, as new plants come online in 2016 and 2017, Mexico's output is forecast to reach 4.47 million units in 2018, before passing 5.0 million units in 2024. Mexican production eclipsed Brazilian output in 2014 and is forecast to remain ahead throughout the forecast period. About this article The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial. The big picture â macroeconomic background In the 1990s, Latin America's boom was driven mostly by a seemingly insatiable global demand-mostly from China-for the region's commodities. Now, the region bears the brunt of a commodity price plunge, as China is moving away from a model of high growth driven by investment and exports to one of slower growth based on consumption and services. Economies of Brazil and Venezuela have both suffered a âdouble-dipâ: first in 2009, and then in 2014 (Venezuela) and 2015 (Brazil) respectively. Meanwhile, Argentina's inflation runs to the tune of upper 20s while Venezuela' inflation is projected to hit a jaw-dropping 634% in 2016, according to forecasts by IHS. However, all is not lost for this region. Economic growth in Colombia, Mexico and Peru is staging a comeback. Growth in Chile is modest but steady. Even Argentina's economy is recovering after a projected recession this year. On the healthcare front â forecasts and a preliminary estimate Argentina owes much of the high health spend growth to its double-digit inflation rate-âso I would not really read too much into it. An even bigger amomalyapplies to Venezuela, whose health spend growth is estimated to hit a whopping 200% this year, boosted largely by its super-high inflation (given the high rate, it is technically infeasible to fit it in the graph below). However, the remaining five economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) are projected by IHS to be growing steadily, with Chile and Peru (both being TPP members) on a higher growth trajectory. Based on IHS forecasts, we expect health spend growth for Peru to reach 9.2% this year and 9.5 next; Chile 8.5% this year and 9.4% next; Brazil 6% this year and 7% next; Mexico 5.5% this year and 7.0% next; and Colombia 6.4% this year and 6.6% next On the pharmaceutical sales front â forecasts of Argentina and Colombia Argentina's growth in the value of pharmaceutical sales is expected to hit 25% this year and 26% next, although again it is driven largely by a double-digit inflation. Perhaps under pressure to curb inflation, the government is currently negotiating with the pharmaceutical industry to keep a price freeze on certain medicines within the next six months, according to business newspaper Ãmbito Financiero. More significantly, that Colombia is on a steady growth trend is more meaningful to me, with growth projected to reach 5.5% this year and 6.7% next. However, recent moves by the Colombian government appear to be sending mixed messages. On the one hand, the government has approved a considerable increase in the price of medicines under direct control; on the other hand, the government has authorised the pricing commission to reduce Glivec's (by Novartis) price by 40â 50%. Looking ahead, I see risks lurking going forward. Colombia faces risks related to a further decline in oil and commodity prices. Argentina faces a daunting task of reducing the inflation rate without worsening the recession. Argentina's medium-term outlook has improved; however, muddling through the short-term adverse external environment will challenge the domestic policymaking and planning. I also see opportunities. While Brazil's medium-term outlook is grim, long-term prospects for the economy remain relatively positive. Meanwhile, the continuing support of market-oriented policies and their beneficial effects on foreign investment underpin a positive long-term outlook for Peru. As for Chile, most of the determinants of long-term growth remain healthy. The fixed investmentâto-GDP ratio averaged 23% in 2011â14. In addition, the wide participation of the private sector and rising levels of investment in machinery and equipment has led to improvements in capital-use efficiency. I can envision possibilities in the long haul for the region as a whole. Labor is relatively abundant in most Latin American countries, so the long-term key driver of growth is investment-the accumulation of physical capital. In addition, it has a strong potential healthcare demand. However, I also realize but it will not be easy to turn the possibilities into sustainable growth. First, the region needs to boost the level of competitiveness and to produce goods with more value-added to move up the value chain. Second, it should be proactive in building a more diversified and sustainable economic base. Third, it needs to change its high propensity to use foreign money to fuel growth and maintain macroeconomic stability. Last but not least, it needs to fix the problem of extreme poverty and income inequality. The last cycle of commodities boom did not sufficiently lift the level of poverty or reduce the high income inequality. As long as poverty and high inequality persist, so will political instability, which in turn will sow the seeds of social and economic upheavals. Jing Zhang is a life sciences economist for IHS 7/9/2016 IHS enhances its Mexico automotive aftermarket insight with new vehicle and OE component ...Read NowIHS expands its partnership with Integrate Data Facts (IDF) providing two new Mexico offerings: Original Equipment (OE) Part Numbers and Sub-national Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Data. As the light vehicle industry in Mexico continues to grow, these two new complementary services to the Mexico VIO File enable aftermarket companies to better target new business opportunities. Posted July 6, 2016 The display is one of the most important elements of a virtual reality (VR) device. At SID 2016 (Society for Information Display), Samsung Display unveiled a 5.5-inch active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) panel with a pixel density of 806 pixels per inch (ppi). Its resolution is 40% higher than the company's existing 577 ppi AMOLED panel, and it is the first ultra-high definition (UHD) 5.x-inch AMOLED panel (3840 à 2160). Samsung Display developed this panel using an electroforming mask technique. This new technology allows electrical current to pass through the plating master embossed with slit patterns so that metal atoms in the plating solution can be deposited on the surface of the plating master. It can form thinner and more elaborate slits than conventional etching processes. However, manufacturing an electroforming mask takes longer, and the new technique is unsuitable for large-sized panels. Therefore, rather than being widely applied to smartphones, Samsung's 806 ppi AMOLED panel is expected to be adopted by a niche small- to mid-size panel market that requires ultra-high resolution displays like the VR market. The requirements for VR displays are as follows:
Until 2015, most VR manufacturers used micro displays that were smaller than one inch - such as liquid crystal on silicon (LCoS) and OLED on CMOS (OLEDoS) displays - in an attempt to produce smaller and lighter VR devices with high resolution, fast response times and lower power consumption. However, these displays were so small that they had to be placed close to the eyes in order to obtain a wide field of view. In that sense, larger VR displays will help to widen the field of view. Given the requirements of a VR display, a 5.x-inch UHD AMOLED display would be a perfect match for VR devices. AMOLED displays are lightweight and offer fast response times. In addition, VR AMOLED displays are free from ambient light reflection, so they do not require polarizers, resulting in higher luminous efficacy and significantly lower power consumption. Even before 2010, some manufacturers, including Sony and Epson, were producing personal VR devices. However, the VR market did not grow much due to a lack of VR content and devices. VR devices also failed to receive much attention from consumers. In 2014, however, public interest in wearables expanded with the launch of Google Glass and the Apple Watch, raising expectations that the VR market would grow. Still, unlike wearables, VR devices restrict users' vision and motion, so they are unlikely to appeal to a wide range of consumers. VR makers could, instead, target video console users who enjoy games or movies. Although micro display shipments for VR devices have been declining, the VR display market is expected to expand significantly in 2016, driven by the rapidly growing interest in VR and the release of high-resolution VR AMOLED panels. Â David Hsieh is Director of Analysis & Research within the IHS Technology group Brazil's June production figures mirror sales as exports reverse their course and tumble 10.2% in June. IHS Automotive Perspective
Brazil's story has not changed dramatically in June, even as the political upheaval continues and the impeachment of the president lingers. In June 2016, Brazil's light-vehicle sales continued declines of 2015, falling 18.7% to 166,615 units according to the country's manufacturers' association Anfavea. The decline was led by passenger cars which registered a 20.9% reduction in June sales to 138,646 units while light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales fell 5.6% to 27,969 units. The decline in June, however, decelerated compared with the 20.9% drop in May, and a 27.7% decline in April. First-half sales in the country are still down 25.1%. June light-vehicle production fell 3.2%, substantially less than the decline rates in earlier months of the year. First-half output is, nevertheless, down 20.9% highlighting the challenges the market is faced with. Export volumes also reversed their upward trend observed so far in the year and declined 10.2% in June, although six-month volumes are up 15.4%. Multiple challenges in the form of low consumer confidence, difficult economic conditions, increasing unemployment, weak credit availability and elevated interest rates have prompted Brazil's automakers association, Anfavea, to reduce its full-year forecast to reflect a 19% reduction in sales volumes and a 5.5% decline in output. The association forecasts that export volumes will grow 21.5% this year. All the three figures reflect light and heavy vehicles. Established manufacturers Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and Volkswagen (VW) are seeing larger y/y declines than those with smaller share, although General Motors (GM) bucked this trend in June. FCA held its status as Brazil's top seller in June with 19,001 passenger cars sold, down 35.4% year on year (y/y), and 10,695 LCVs (down 0.2% y/y). GM kept its lead over VW for the second place, with 24,937 passenger cars (up 7.7%) and 3,190 LCVs sold (a 26.2% drop). VW's June passenger car sales were at 16,796 units (down 29.5% y/y) and LCV sales of 4,148 units (down 34.1% y/y). Renault-Nissan sold 15,579 passenger cars and 2,263 LCVs, ahead of Ford, which sold 12,133 passenger cars and 1,889 LCVs. Meanwhile, Brazil has been working to expand exports, and in June also announced a new four-year agreement with Argentina. There is some evidence it is helping, too, as several manufacturers temporarily called some workers back in late June. Outlook and implications The auto market had a weak 2015, and 2016 has been worse than expected, even against low expectations. IHS forecasts a decline of 23.9%, falling to 1.88 million units in 2016, staying below 2.5 million until 2022. Along with fixing the fiscal deficit and tackling inflation, the country is impacted by corruption scandals and a lack of political co-operation. As the unemployment rate rose to 11.2% for the three-month period ending April 2016, we could see 2016 fall further. Factors pushing the decline include an absence of economic momentum and consumer confidence, continued cautious bank lending and the discontinuation of tax benefits. Government investment has also been frozen, as it works to bring a growing deficit in check and coping with intensifying repercussions of alleged corruption at Petrobras (which brought about the process of presidential impeachment). Increasing vehicle prices (with 15.8% on mandated safety equipment), high inflation, high interest rates (23% in January 2016, compared with 18.5% in the third quarter of 2014), and tight credit availability have been driving sales down since 2014 and these factors have grown more severe. Brazil's inflation remains high, with slight easing reported in June. In the 12 months through mid-June, the rate fell to 8.98%, the first time below 9.0% in a year. This followed a reading just below 10.0% in March, compared with 10.36% in February 2016 and 9% in January. In the 12 months ending mid-May 2016, it came in at 9.6% â all of this is well above the Central Bank's ceiling of 6.5%. With inflationary pressures persisting, the Central Bank of Brazil has held the Selic rate at the 14.25% rate imposed on 30 July 2015. The most recent reports indicate that central bank chief Ilan Goldfajn has said it is too early to consider a rate cut, as inflation remains above target and the government has yet to implement budget cuts. The rate is expected to be maintained at the Bank's next meeting, on 20 July 2016. The Wall Street Journal quotes Golfajn as saying that he expects inflation to weaken relatively rapidly on stricter fiscal policies. He also suggested that the UK decision to leave the EU is unlikely to affect Brazil's prospects, although Brexit is expected to reduce global growth. Looking further ahead, we are in for a long recovery. There will be no change in the status quo for the economy â no drivers for light-vehicle sales in the next few years; IHS economists forecast economic growth may not arrive before 2019. As a result, through 2022 light-vehicle demand will not break 2.5 million units. The potential for Brazil exists, but realising it will be a complicated process, more so with political uncertainty. In shorter term, there is more downside left in the market. IHS Automotive expects vehicle sales in the country to decline 3.4% in 2017 before returning to positive growth rates in subsequent years. Brazilian opportunities include a low motorisation rate (a little more than five people per car). The nominal USD10,000 GDP-per-capita milestone was broken in 2010 â this is the point at which a significant portion of the population may be in the right position to be new-car buyers, but Brazil is closer to a-per capita GDP of just USD7,000. Also, a larger number of brands have brought a wide spectrum of products, sparking excitement in consumers. This combination of elements puts the forecast for the Brazilian market above 3 million units again by 2024. Our outlook puts Brazil's motorisation rate at roughly 4.0 people per car within five years, and working toward 3.5 people per car in 10 years. This helps to explain why Brazil has become such a critical pillar of growth for OEMs worldwide. About this article The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial. |